El Niño forecast to drive record heat from the Amazon to Alaska in 2024
Coastal areas facing ‘enormous and urgent climate crisis’ as event supercharges human-caused global heating, scientists say
El Niño to Supercharge Global Heating and Drive Record Heat from the Amazon to Alaska in 2024
Analysis has found that the current climate event known as El Niño is likely to amplify global heating and result in record-breaking temperatures from the Amazon to Alaska in 2024. The scientists also predict that coastal areas of India, the Philippines, and the Caribbean will experience unprecedented heat until June, after which El Niño may weaken.
El Niño, which involves the release of heat from the western Pacific Ocean, is known to elevate global surface temperatures. In 2023, El Niño contributed significantly to the hottest year on record. The extreme heat experienced in the second half of 2023 had severe impacts on regions such as North America, Europe, China, South America, and Madagascar.
Using computer models, the new analysis identifies the likely hotspots in the first half of 2024. The researchers also estimate a 90% chance of setting a new global temperature record during this period.
Enormous Climate Crisis and Threats to Coastal Areas
According to Dr. Ning Jiang and his co-authors from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, densely populated coastal areas are facing an enormous and urgent climate crisis due to intense heatwaves, tropical cyclones, global sea-level rise, and the impending warmth caused by El Niño. They warn that adaptation, mitigation, and risk management efforts are being challenged.
The heightened risk of year-round marine heatwaves, as well as the threat of wildfires and other negative consequences, is particularly concerning for Alaska and the Amazon basin. Seas and coastal areas are especially vulnerable because the ocean can retain more heat than land, resulting in prolonged hot conditions.
The Earth's natural climate cycle oscillates between El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña. While these cycles impact global heating trends, the underlying rise in carbon dioxide levels from fossil fuels remains the primary driver.
Predictions for 2024
The study, published in Scientific Reports, modeled the effects of El Niño on regional surface temperatures from July 2023 to June 2024. The findings indicate that record-breaking temperatures and an increased risk of wildfires are likely in the Amazon. Alaska, on the other hand, would experience melting glaciers, permafrost, and coastal erosion due to record heat.
Prof Adam Scaife from the Met Office and University of Exeter explains that the study provides a simple forecast for the year based on observed temperature records and knowledge about El Niño and other global effects. While some regions, such as Africa and Greenland, have limited historical data coverage, climate model forecasts highlight them as areas with prominent levels of excess heat in 2024.
