Swiatek vs. Rybakina: Who has the edge in the Doha final?

The case for Swiatek

World No.1 Iga Swiatek faces No.4 Elena Rybakina on Saturday to decide the season’s first Hologic WTA Tour 1000 event. And while Swiatek is angling for her 12th consecutive match win in Doha -- and third straight title -- history says Rybakina has much more than a fighting chance.

Last year, Rybakina prevailed in straight sets on the hard courts of the Australian Open and Indian Wells, as well as the clay of the Italian Open. There’s an asterisk -- Swiatek retired with a thigh injury with the score 2-6, 7-6 (3), 2-2. But Rybakina, who has a thumping game better suited to fast hard courts (and the grass at Wimbledon), held her own on the cloying clay.

This is relevant because the surface in Doha is considered slow by hard court standards. It agrees splendidly with Swiatek’s skill set; three of the events she’s won more than once (Paris, Rome, Stuttgart) are played on clay. The other is Doha.

It is a challenge,

The case for Rybakina

Let’s review the 24-year-old’s ridiculous start to 2024: She’s already won 15 of 17 matches, two titles and finds herself in a third final. And, it’s worth noting, those two losses came under extenuating circumstances.

The first, to Ekaterina Alexandrova, came in the Adelaide quarterfinals with the Australian Open looming and Rybakina in danger of overextending herself after winning the title in Brisbane the week before. The second? To Anna Blinkova in the second round at Melbourne. Rybakina said later she was feeling under the weather but, nevertheless, battled into a third-set tiebreaker. Blinkova needed a historic effort to pull off the upset.

I understand, Courtney, that Swiatek has been playing lights out in Doha. She’s also got the distinct advantage of getting a walkover into the final after Karolina Pliskova withdrew due to a painful back due to playing nine matches in 10 days. Oh, and as you astutely pointed out, she leads the tournament in virtually every statistical category.

But … I think the head-to-head more than compensates for all that. And there’s this: Since the beginning of last year, Rybakina leads all players with 31 wins in WTA 1000 events -- Swiatek has 30. One of those wins came over Swiatek in the Indian Wells semifinals. It ended Swiatek's title defense.

Head To Head

Insights from Elena Rybakina:

Ranking: 4

Matches Played: 4

Win percentage: 75%

Insights from Iga Swiatek:

Ranking: 1

Matches Played: 3

Win percentage: 25%